Archive for November, 2006|Monthly archive page
Our current position:
BUYERS’ EDGE INTACT
In this week’s edition you will find:
- Where We Are
- What Was Important About Last Week
- What We Are Watching For This Week
- A Word On Discipline
Where We Are:
Taking a look at the broader market:
With the indexes busting out to new highs for the week, we imagine the record amount of short sellers on the NYSE are feeling the heat.
But it’s usually when things look this good that the trend ends. This market continues to wait for a significant correction.
The Technology Index breaking out to new highs gives further confirmation of the bull’s dominance in this environment.
As the Cyclical Index also breaks out of a cup-and-handle, we still see it’s relatively weaker than its Consumer Index counterpart. This means the buying is still going mostly to defensive issues that tend to hold up better in weaker economies.
We also have new highs from the Retail , Internet and Biotechnology Indexes.
Airlines also broke north of a lower base to hit a two year high.
On the cusp of breaking out of a cup-and-handle patterns are the Broker Dealers, Defense Index and Transportation Indexes.
The key sectors of Banking, which is consolidating near new highs, and Semiconductors, which has regained its northbound direction, look good – but pose a threat for bull’s durability if they fall a part.
Energy is stumbling its way back to recent highs in what may end up being a new bullish cup-and-handle pattern – it’s too hard to say.
Meanwhile, the Gold Mining Index and US Dollar Index are wound up, and threaten to trend sideways as new money is sucked in.
The Dow Industrial Average
($INDU), 1.9 %, blasted its way to another new high.
The S&P 500
($SPX), 1.5 %, also hit another new high.
($COMPQ), 2.3 %, rallied for the second week in a row from its base breakout point.
($RUT), 2.5 %, broke out into new high territory.
Volume indications for the week gave us three accumulation days apiece for the Dow, Naz and Russell 2K.
Key chart action for the week:
Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com
The top 10 industry groups from the 6 month RS screen are:
- TOYS GAMES
- REIT HEALTHCARE FACILI
- MOVIE PRODUCTION THEAT
- MEDICAL LABS RESEARCH
- CATV SYSTEMS
- DRUG RELATED PRODUCTS
- REIT – DIVERSIFIED
- REGIONAL AIRLINES
- PACKAGING CONTAINERS
- PERSONAL SERVICES
What Was Important About Last Week
- Home Depot (HD) blamed a “very challenging” housing environment on lesser earnings.
- Bob Evans (BOBE) posted earnings .03 below expectations at 0.36 per share. Revenue rose 5.2% from a year ago.
- Analog Devices (ADI) missed expectations by 0.01 with earnings of 0.39 per share. Revenues declined 2.9% from a year ago.
- Borland Software (BORL) beat by 0.01 with a loss posted at 0.06 per share. Revenue was up more than 21% from a year ago.
- Applied Materials (AMAT) missed earnings expectations by 0.01 at 0.30 per share. Revenues were up 46.7% from a year ago.
- Gymboree (GYMB) beat earnings estimated by 0.02 with profits of 0.19 per share. Revenues were up 21.8% from a year ago.
- PetSmart (PETM) beat earnings estimates by 0.01 with profits of 0.22 per share.
- Tyson (TSN) said an oversupply of meat attributed to its quarterly loss.
- Gap (GPS) beat earnings estimates by 0.01 with profits of 0.23 per share. Revenue was down 0.1% fom a year ago.
- Hewlett Packard (HPQ) beat estimates by 0.04 with profits of 0.68 per share. Revenue was up 7.4% from a year ago.
- Starbux (SBUX) posted earnings of 0.17 per share with revenue up more than 20% from a year ago.
- Housing Starts fell 14.6% in October, and is now at its lowest level since July 2000.
- The Consumer Price Index declined 0.5% for October, its second consecutive drop.
- Industrial Production was up 0.2% for October, on the heels of September’s 0.6% decline.
- The Producer Price Index slid 1.6% in October, following a 1.3% drop in September.
- Retail Sales dipped just 0.2% for October, less than expected.
What We’re Looking For This Week
Key earnings releases:
- MONDAY: Campbell Soup (CPB), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Medtronic Inc. (MDT), Nordstrom (JWN)
- TUESDAY: Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR), Jack in the Box (JBX)
- WEDNESDAY: none
- THURSDAY: none
- FRIDAY: none
On the economic front we have potential market movers with:
- MONDAY: Leading Indicators
- TUESDAY: none
- WEDNESDAY: Initial Claims, Mich Sentiment-Rev., Crude Inventories
- THURSDAY: Initial Claims
- FRIDAY: none
- The Growth Stock Landscape
- What We Like – What We Have
- This Week’s Scans: • SETUPS • BREAKOUTS • BASE BUILDING • SHORTS
This Week’s Word On Discipline:
“When things are steep, remember to stay level-headed.” – Horace