Time To Listen

GSRTrades Weekly Market Report

Time To Listen

Market Bias
Buyer’s Caution

Our market bias is based on a combo of Fundamental and Technical evidence. Economic and earning trends are matched against our analysis of price and volume charts, giving us an inidcation of how friendly the market is for our beloved Breakout Growth Stocks.

This is active trading, not investing. Our holding periods can las a day to months. The idea here is to keep it simple. The goal is to accumulate as many trading profits as possible.

Where We Are


That’s five days up in a row for the S&P 500 to kick off the New Year.

With every major index at 52-week highs there’s been a natural reaction for the average speculators to call a top.

But what goes high often goes higher.

And we like to let the market do the talking. We at the GSRTrades are mere listeners.

Once heavy sell volume and a collapse of leadership sets in we’ll take it as a clue to sell ourselves.

Something like Google, Inc. (GOOG) with its high-volume sell-off last week could be just the precursor.

Given the market’s massive rally since March there’s a lot of professional money commanding action these days as Joe Blow sits on the sidelines.

Significant selling could easily trigger a landslide of further selling from fund managers as they look to lock in gains and be defensive.  The result could be a steep correction.

But until that happens there’s no telling how high things will go.

There’s plenty with intricate studies and analysis that will tell you exactly where it ends. And a few of them by the law of odds are bound to be right.

But in the end the market doesn’t care how smart you are.

This is war.

In the next few weeks we expect to gain a better understanding of what biases institutions are taking and what sectors they’re favoring.

So far, we suspiciously see Cyclicals stronger than Consumer Staples.

Banks and Homebuilders took in a tsunami of cash with each gaining 10%.

And Gold is off to a strong start, backed by the bullishness of Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letter.

See you next week.

Technically Speaking

MAJOR INDEX BIAS & PERFORMANCE FOR WEEK
BIAS
Index
Chg.
%
Action
+
DJIA
+190 +1.82% 52-week High
+
Nasdaq
+48 +2.12% 52-week High
+
S&P 500
+30 +2.68% 52-week High
+
Russ. 2K
+19 +3.07% 52-week High
or = Above or Below 40-week exponential moving average. + = 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA

FOUR-WEEK VOLUME INDICATOR BIAS
Accumulation
Distribution
BIAS
Index
Major
Minor
Major
Minor
DJIA
2 2 2 2
Nasdaq
3 3 0 1
S&P 500
3 2 2 1
Russ. 2K
2 3 1 0
Accumulation: index up with more volume than previous day. Distribution: index down with more volume than previous day. Major: > 60-day average, Minor: <.

SECTOR BIAS & PERFORMANCE FOR WEEK
BIAS Sector % Action
+ 10-yr Treas. Note Yield, $TNX -0.9% Consolidates under 52-wk high
U.S. Dollar, $DXC
-0.6% Consolidates under 200-day MA
+
Gold & Silver Miners, $XAU
+8.0% Regains 50-day MA
+ Commodities, $DJAIG
+2.3% 52-week High
+
Consumers, $CMR +0.8% Consolidates under 52-wk high
+
Cyclicals, $CYC +7.0% 52-week High
+
Technology, $DJUSTC
+1.2% 52-week High
+
Semiconductors, $SOX +2.2% 52-week High
+
Software, $GSO +2.0% 52-week High
+
Telecoms, $XTC +0.7% 52-week High
+
Banks, $BKX +10% Bolts above 50-day MA
+
Broker Dealers, $XBD +4.2% Bolts above 50-day MA
+
Retail, $RLX +1.4% Consolidates under 52-wk high
+
Healthcare, $HCX +1.97% 52-week High
+
Biotechnology, $BKX +3.3% 52-week High
+
Pharmaceutical, $DRG +0.4% Consolidates under 52-wk high
+
REITs, $DJR
+0.1% Consolidates under 52-wk high
+
Homebuilders, $DJUSHB +10% Bolts above 50-day MA
+
Transportation, $TRAN +3% 52-week High
+
Airlines, $XAL
+5.4% 52-week High
+
Defense, $DFX +3.2% 52-week High
+
Energy Index, $IXE +5.9% Just shy of 52-week high
or = Above or Below 40-week exponential moving average. + = 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA

News To Watch This Week

Earnings:

  • MONDAY: ALCOA Inc. (AA)
  • TUESDAY: Supervalu Inc. (SVU)
  • WEDNESDAY: none
  • THURSDAY: none
  • FRIDAY: none

Economic:

  • MONDAY: none
  • TUESDAY: Trade Balance
  • WEDNESDAY: Crude Inventories, Fed’s Beige Book, Treasury Budget,
  • THURSDAYJobless Claims, Retail Sales, Export/Import Prices, Business Inventories
  • FRIDAY: CPI, Empire Manufacturing Survey, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Mich. Sentiment

This Week’s Work On Discipline

“With self-discipline most anything is possible.” — Theodore Roosevelt


This Market Report is our broad analysis that is the foundation for our Growth Stock Report, which highlights trading opportunities in individual stocks.

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