Measuring The Aftermath

GSRTrades Weekly Market Report

 

Market Bias
Seller’s Edge

 

Where We Are

We’re sticking to our Sell Bias as we wait to better measure the aftermath of last week’s correction.

From a technical perspective, the sharp turnaround the major indexes made off their 200-day moving averages looks as if capitulation was achieved.

Whether or not selling pressure was exhausted has yet to be determined. Friday’s action after the “flash crash” gave an impression folks were still spooked over the sudden drop as heavy sell-volume piled in.

It’s not hard to imagine a lot of funds just waiting for an invitation to exit the market. Managers want to lock-in gains from the past year’s historic rally.

Our volume indicators are tilted to the sellers as multiple Distribution Days, where volume exceeds the previous day on a down day, dominates recent action.

We won’t really know how interested buyers are until we see the amount of volume is produced on an up day.

If the market is going to rebound it also needs to show some Leadership. Most of the larger stocks in the market appear poised for more selling as critical support levels were broken last week. But often it’s the case that the market rallies just when things look the worst.

After exiting most of our short positions last week we’re going to sit tight and wait for better odds to come forth.

 

 

Technically Speaking

MAJOR INDEX BIAS & PERFORMANCE FOR WEEK
BIAS
Index
Chg.
%
Action
+
DJIA
-628 -5.71% Rebounds from 200-day MA
+

Nasdaq
-69 -7.95% Rebounds from 200-day MA
+ NDX 100
-151 -7.56% Rebounds from 200-day MA
+

S&P 500
-76 -6.39% Rebounds from 200-day MA
+
S&P 100
-18 -6.21% Rebounds from 200-day MA
+

Russ 2K
-64 -8.88% Closes above 200-day MA
or = Above or Below 40-week exponential moving average. + = 50-day SMA is above the 200-day MA

FOUR-WEEK VOLUME INDICATOR BIAS
Accumulation
Distribution
BIAS
Index
Major
Minor
Major
Minor

DJIA
4 0 4
0

Nasdaq
4 0 4 0

S&P 500
3 0 5 0

Russ. 2K
4 0 4 0
Accumulation: index up with more volume than previous day. Distribution: index down with more volume than previous day. Major: > 60-day average, Minor: <.

SECTOR TREND BIAS & PERFORMANCE FOR WEEK
BIAS Sector % Action
+

U.S. Dollar, $USD +3.37% New 52-wk High
+

Gold & Silver Miners, $XAU +3.99% Pulls back to 50-day MA
+

Commodities, $DJAIG -4.48% Falls below 200-day MA
+

Consumers, $CMR -4.60% Rebounds from 200-day MA
+

Cyclicals, $CYC -9.16% Closes above 200-day MA
+

Technology, $DJUSTC -7.61% Rebounds from 200-day MA
+

Semiconductors, $SOX -7.80% Rebounds from 200-day MA
+

Software, $GSO -7.67% Closes on 200-day MA
+

Telecoms, $XTC -5.72% Closes on 200-day MA
+

Banks, $BKX -7.21% Closes below 50-day MA
+

Broker Dealers, $XBD -7.31% Crashes below 200-day MA
+

Retail, $RLX -6.71% Closes below 50-day MA
+

Healthcare, $HCX -3.89% Closes below 200-day MA
+

Biotechnology, $BKX -12.63% Closes above 200-day MA
+

Pharmaceutical, $DRG -4.65% Pulls back to 200-day MA
+

REITs, $DJR -6.26% Closes below 50-day MA
+

Homebuilders, $DJUSHB -11.10% Closes above 200-day MA
+

Transportation, $TRAN -7.98% Closes below 50-day MA
+

Airlines, $XAL -9.90% Closes above 200-day MA
+

Defense, $DFX -7.88% Closes below 50-day MA
+

Energy Index, $IXE -8.31% Closes below 200-day MA
or = Above or Below 40-week exponential moving average. + = 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA

 

News To Watch This Week

Earnings:

  • MONDAY: Blockbuster Inc. (BBI), Denny’s Corporation (DENN), Dillard’s (DDS), Fluor Corporation (FLR), Priceline.com (PCLN), Tyson Foods (TSN), Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT)
  • TUESDAY: Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (CTRP), Toyota Motor Corporation (TM), Walt Disney (DIS)
  • WEDNESDAY: Cisco Systems (CSCO), DryShips Inc. (DRYS), Whole Foods Market (WFMI)
  • THURSDAY: Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS), Kohls Corporation (KSS), Nordstrom (JWN), Urban Outfitters (URBN)
  • FRIDAY: JCPenney (JCP) 

Economic:

  • MONDAY: none
  • TUESDAY: Wholesale Inventories    
  • WEDNESDAY: Trade Balance, Crude Inventories, Treasury Budget
  • THURSDAY: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Export Prices ex-ag., Import Prices ex-oil
  • FRIDAY: Retail Sales, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Mich Sentiment, Business Inventories

 

This Week’s Word On Discipline

“Beware of endeavoring to become a great man in a hurry. One such attempt in ten thousand may succeed. These are fearful odds.” — Benjamin Disraeli

 

This Market Report is our broad analysis that is the foundation for our Growth Stock Report, which highlights trading opportunities in individual stocks.

 

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